Financial news sites have been full of headlines proclaiming that a recession is imminent.
Last week, a team of Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said that three of the top five economic indicators of the business cycle are near levels associated with the beginning of previous recessions.
The best predictor of recessions has been the inversion of the yield curve between 2-year and 10-year treasury bonds.
CNBC reported that “the last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before the financial crisis and subsequent recession. Economists often give the spread between the 10-year and the 1-year special attention because inversions of that part of the curve have preceded every recession over the past 50 years…
In practice, that means that investors are better compensated for loaning to the U.S. over two years than they are loaning for 10 years.”
Many in the media seem to be rooting for a recession. Why would they be actively hoping for the economy to fail?
Well, because they want Donald Trump to lose in 2020.
They hate him so much that they are willing to let people suffer the consequences of an economic downturn.
On HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” Bill Maher openly declared that he wished for a recession because that will definitely get Trump “unelected.”
He said, “we have survived many recessions. We can’t survive another Donald Trump term.”
However, not everyone agrees that a recession is imminent.
Credit Suisse Report
Credit Suisse, a leading financial services company, created a “recession dashboard” that tracks the state of certain economic indicators at the start of each recession dating back to 1973.
Their latest findings indicate that we are not close to a recession.
CNBC reported that “economic data looks nothing like that of a recession…Key signals such as labor and credit trends remain quite healthy…the labor market is strong with the total labor force hitting a record high of 163.4 million, according to the Labor Department’s July jobs report.
Inflation and earnings quality are all ‘expansionary’ indicators, according to Golub. Inflation is close to the Federal Reserves’ 2% target and in the second quarter, nearly 75% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings so far beat analyst’s expectations.”
It is not all doom and gloom for the economy. The media would have you believe that we will wake up tomorrow morning and find ourselves neck-deep in a recession, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
The economy has been strong for several years now. Unemployment has been at a 50-year low, wages have been rising, and GDP growth has been significantly higher than during the Obama years.
There are seven million job openings and America is on the verge of being a net exporter of energy, something that once seemed unfathomable.
There are certainly some reasons to be cautious, but, for now, it appears that the economy is not on the verge of recession.
Those in the mainstream media who are rooting for a recession to hurt Trump’s chances at reelection will not like to hear that. There is no low they will not stoop to with regards to their hatred of President Trump, even if it requires economic misery.