Election Day is less than a month away! Although the outcome isn’t certain, we do know one thing: this has been an election unlike any other. A pandemic has changed the way a traditional presidential campaign is run. Gone are the large rallies and door knocking, replaced by virtual conventions and widespread mail-in voting.
The race for president has changed significantly with the fallout from the first Presidential Debate and President Trump’s COVID-19 diagnosis. The President has been sidelined for the past few days before returning to the White House on Monday evening.
The polls show Joe Biden with a sizeable lead in the national polling and a narrower lead in the battleground states. The battleground state polls were mostly wrong in 2016, but the national polls were largely correct, providing ample reason for concern. The Real Clear Politics average had Hillary up by around 2.5 percent and she won the popular vote by about 2 percent.
However, the national popular vote is irrelevant in our Electoral College system, and Trump won the most electors in 2016. Besides Wisconsin, Trump was within 5 percentage points in the battleground polls heading into Election Day, essentially within the margin of error. If he falls outside that five percentage point margin, then I would be concerned.
But it isn’t all doom and gloom for the Trump campaign. There is still time to make up ground, and assuming Trump’s health continues to improve, there will be two more debates. There is room for Trump to improve in the next two debates, while Biden likely maxed out and did the best he can do in the first debate. This provides Trump with an opening to strike a knockout blow and get back in the race.
Now, I have to disagree with some of our fine readers in the comments sections of other articles I have written who claim that Trump will win in a landslide. I have about as much a chance of marrying Miss America as Trump has of winning in a landslide. I wish I could say otherwise, but this was always going to be a close race even before the coronavirus struck.
Too many Americans aren’t paying enough attention to the Senate and House races. The Senate could very well fall into the hands of the Democrats, and the House is likely to remain in the hands of the Democrats.
Senate Majority Schumer would join Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and if that doesn’t give you a chill and get you out to vote, I don’t know what will.
There are several key races in the Senate. There are two Senate seats open in Georgia, with polls for both showing the Republicans with a narrow lead. Lindsey Graham is in danger of losing in South Carolina. Senator Tillis is trailing to his opponent, as are Susan Collins in Maine and Joni Ernst in Iowa. Cory Gardener is in a tight race against John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Martha McSally is trailing Marc Kelly in Arizona.
I am not writing this piece to be a downer. I am writing this to motivate you, dear reader, to get out and vote and make sure your friends and family do as well. This is election is too important to take for granted. The future of the country depends on it.
It’s up to us to act!