The election is getting close. After what feels like the longest election cycle in the history of the United State, the Presidential election of 2020 is almost upon us.
With that being the case, there are countless “experts” and pundits out there that think they can accurately predict the outcome
However, most of them don’t really know what they’re doing. They’re taking blind stabs in the dark, hoping to hit something.
The problem with this is that, given the two-party system, they’ve basically got a 50/50 shot at guessing correctly, and, contrary to popular belief, those are pretty good odds when all is said and done.
Very few of these people have a history of correctly picking the election—and after the shocking upset in 2016, a lot of them are either gun-shy or overconfident about their predictive capabilities.
They all thought Hillary would run away with 2016…
They were so sure that they were literally having parties to ring in the election of the first female president before the results were in. However, Donald J. Trump had something to say about that, and that’s why he’s the one working in the Oval Office.
And now, with everything coming out about Hillary Clinton’s plan to use the Trump/Russia collusion story as an angle to win the presidency, we know now that he’s a vetted and LEGITIMATE president to boot.
So… Who’s Going To Win?
But with everything hitting our country at the moment—a pandemic, and economic crisis, AND manufactured racial tension—a lot of the talking heads are going with the “popular” choice right now, which is Joe Biden.
But should they?
Not if they listened to Stony Brook University Professor Helmut Norpoth…
Because if they did, they’d all be predicting Trump’s reelection.
Who is professor Helmut Norpoth, you may ask, and why is he worth listening to when it comes to US presidential elections?
Well, besides being a college professor, Norpoth has been correctly calling every election since 1996, missing only Al Gore vs George W. Bush in 2000.
He was also one of only a handful of pollsters who correctly predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, and his Primary Model, when applied to previous elections, correctly predicted 25 of the last 27 elections, missing only the aforementioned 2000 election and the 1960 election in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon.
That’s pretty rarified air…
25 of 27 elections—that’s how good his model is. In 2020, his model has Trump beating Biden by a greater margin than he beat Hillary.
Maybe NOT A Landslide – But Close
Norpoth told Fox News, “The key to the November election is the primaries. The early primaries are giving us a lot of information. Based on that, Donald Trump won them very easily in his party. Joe Biden, the likely nominee for the Democrats, had a great deal of trouble, pulled it together, but on balance is that stronger performance of primaries that gives Donald Trump the edge in November.”
That’s going to ruffle some feathers.
He points to some of the past problems Creepy Joe had when it came to winning the nomination…
“People have forgotten how Joe Biden did in New Hampshire,” Norpoth told reporters. “He was terrible. He got 8.4% of the vote, which is unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president.”
So, there you have it…
If things play out as they should, Trump should win the 2020 election pretty handily, winning an estimated 362 Electoral votes to Biden’s 176.
It doesn’t exactly put Trump in the Landslide Victory Hall of Fame, but it’s respectable enough to let him claim total victory.
Let’s hope Norpoth’s model is right…
The future of our great nation depends on it.
“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.” – Steve Jobs